Shannon Brandao
Shannon's excerpt from the article: "FT [excerpt]: Interviews with more than two dozen #realestate #brokers across the capital, long one of #China’s most desirable real estate markets, show transaction prices have fallen between 10 and 30 per cent from their peak in 2021.
Their testimony runs counter to a widely watched National Bureau of Statistics index of existing #homesale prices in #Beijing and adds to concerns about the impact of the #property market slowdown on the broader Chinese economy’s struggle to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.
According to the NBS, Beijing’s existing home prices dipped 1.4 per cent in November year on year, and were up 5 per cent from two years ago.
'That is very different from what the public feels,' said Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. 'The government may want to use official numbers to restore confidence in the market.'
The discrepancy has also stoked concerns about the quality of China’s official statistics. Some #investors, eager for accurate data as they respond to this year’s economic slowdown, fear officials are manipulating figures to meet ambitious growth targets.
'Actual home price falls are far bigger than NBS numbers,' said Liu Yuan, a Shanghai-based researcher at Centaline Property Agency. 'Official statistics could make policymakers think the market is doing fine when it is actually in deep trouble.'
Analysts warn the #housing sector crisis poses a huge risk to the #economy, chilling #construction activity, cutting household #wealth and damping consumer confidence. ...
The drop in Beijing home prices is particularly notable. Prices in the capital, where well-paid government workers are protected from economic turmoil, had remained stable even after Chinese leader #XiJinping launched a crackdown on property speculation in 2021.
An existing housing price index compiled by Centaline reported a 10 per cent drop in Shanghai in the 12 months ending June, but a 9 per cent increase in Beijing over the same period.
Since the second half of this year, however, home sellers in the capital have started offering steep discounts.
Old apartments, which were built before 2000 and account for more than half of active listings, are leading the wave in price cuts. In Panjiayuan, a neighbourhood in downtown Beijing, a three-bedroom apartment in a residential complex built in the early 1980s is listed for Rmb3.1mn ($435,000), down from Rmb4m a year ago. A broker for the flat, who declined to be named, said it had received few inquiries and prices could fall further.
'We are open to negotiation if buyers are sincere,' the broker said. 'But there are not many of them.'
Newer flats are not faring much better. In Chaoyang, a central Beijing diplomatic and business district, a two-bedroom apartment in the popular Apple Community compound built in 2005 sold in October for Rmb6mn, brokers said. A similar unit in the same neighbourhood sold for Rmb7.5mn in March."
#news #business