Massive Downward Revisions For Conference Board Confidence Leave ‘Present Situation’ At April 2021 Lows
This is consistent with the short and shallow recession we anticipate in the first half of 2024…
Tyler Durden
From The article: "Thanks to a massive downward revision in October, the November Conference Board Consumer Confidence index 'improved'.
- October headline revised down from 102.6 to 99.1 (the weakest since Jul 2022), and November headline printed 102.0 (up notably from the downwardly revised data).
- October Present Situation revised down from 143.1 to 138.6, and November present situation printed 138.2 (down from the downward revision to the lowest since April 2021)
- October Expectations revised down from 75.6 to 72.7, and November Expectations printed 77.8 (notably higher than the downward revision).
Source: Bloomberg
The 3.5pts downward revision for the headline print is the largest since Feb 2022...
Source: Bloomberg"
"The labor market indicators are trending worse - now at the weakest since April 2021...
Source: Bloomberg
Average 12-month inflation expectations receded back to 5.7% after a one-month uptick to 5.9%, dramatically divergent from UMich inflation expectations' spike...
Source: Bloomberg
Buying plans for autos, homes, and big-ticket appliances trended downward on a six-month basis - perhaps reflecting the impact of elevated interest rates.
[Source: Bloomberg]"