Ray Powell on LinkedIn: Gregory Poling on Escalating Tension in the South China Sea
💡Superb interview of Gregory Poling by Shannon Tiezzi on the hightened #SouthChinaSea tensions between 🇨🇳#China and the 🇵🇭#Philippines from the 2024…
LinkedInRay Powell

Ray Powell's comment and synopsis: "💡Superb interview of Gregory Poling by Shannon Tiezzi on the hightened #SouthChinaSea tensions between 🇨🇳#China and the 🇵🇭#Philippines from the 2024 preview edition of The Diplomat. Subscription required for entire article, but several pull quotes highlight the piece: 👇

'The deepening U.S.-Philippine alliance is a symptom of China's behavior in the South China Sea, not its cause.'

'... you don't blame the victim for reporting abuse; China is responsible for its own illegal and violent behavior, not the Philippines for refusing to surrender.'

The Philippines' transparency campaign 'has helped galvanize Philippine public opinion, countered disinformation (both foreign and domestic), and convinced about two dozen states to publicly support the Philippines' claims and demand China comply with the 2016 South China Sea arbitration award.'

'Despite the growing risk of collisions and other violence around Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, Beijing has utterly failed to find an effective way to deny the Philippines access to either without resorting to military force, which would undermine its wider regional and global ambitions. China has backed itself into a corner with no good options ...'

'Washington recognizes Philippine agency in defending its own rights, while Beijing insists that Manila (and all smaller states) are mere puppets on the international stage who need not be taken seriously.'

Plus a bold prediction:

'I fully expect more alignment between Jakarta and Manila, and perhaps even a public endorsement of the arbitral award, following Indonesia's 2024 elections.'"